President Goodluck Jonathan has had a mixed campaign so far. He’s received criticism and praise for his administration in the last five years. Will he win this election?
Naij.com’s regular commentator
on electoral issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of 18
states where Jonathan might lose the polls, and why.
The big day
is now just three weeks from now and things are shaping up already. The
people rooting for President Jonathan are keenly looking forward to
March 28 and anticipating a victory for him.
However, there are
some states where the president might lose this election based on recent
history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are
18 states where this might happen.
Niger is the only
state in the north central that Jonathan lost in 2011. He won the other
states in the zone. Niger’s mainly Muslim population might be a
difficulty for Jonathan again this time.
the upper hand in Yobe and the rest of the north east. Last time
Jonathan lost heavily to Buhari in this state. Buhari will likely sweep
the votes here this month. It’s a core Muslim state.
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lost Gombe to Buhari too in 2011. He probably doesn’t have much chance
here this year either. The Muslim majority in the state isn’t leaning in
Borno has largely been a war zone for
some time now. Boko Haram seized parts of the state and imposed a great
deal of terror here. The people will probably not be voting for the
president because of the way he’s handled the fight against insurgency
in their area. Buhari will probably win it here.
was an easy win for Buhari in Bauchi last time where he pocketed 82% of
the votes. Jonathan almost certainly has no chance of winning in Bauchi
this year or in any state in the north east for that matter.
is a core Muslim state in the north west. Buhari is king here as he is
in the rest of the north west. Last time he cleanly swept this zone and
Jonathan lost in all the states including Zamfara. This zone is
Jonathan’s worst nightmare.
Here’s another mainly
Muslim state that will be hard for Jonathan to win. He lost here last
time even though the PDP runs things in the state. It’s not likely he
can turn around the situation this year.
defeated Jonathan in Kebbi state in 2011. He’s apparently going to win
it here again this time. Jonathan’s popularity in the area hasn’t
improved pretty much in the last four years.
This is where Buhari comes from. His victory in this state is indisputable.
is another stronghold of Buhari. It was a walkover for him here in the
last election. Now the APC is also in charge in Kano. Jonathan barely
has a chance in this state.
Jonathan narrowly lost
to Buhari here in 2011 even though the state has a Muslim majority. It’s
another state where he might lose this month. However, the state is
Buhari beat Jonathan in Jigawa last year and
is a lot more popular than the president in this state. But Jonathan
might still draw the votes given his party is in charge in the state.
governor Rotimi Amaechi is one of Jonathan’s principal enemy and he’s
Buhari’s campaign chief. Jonathan knocked out Buhari completely the last
time, but this time the APC have the momentum and the equation has
Buhari’s party runs the government in this
Igbo state and the governor Rochas Okorocha is highly popular among the
masses. He can and will probably influence the voters here in favour of
his party’s candidate. A Jonathan victory here is uncertain.
packed the most votes in the west last time, but things have since
changed with the APC merger. Now the west is rooting for Buhari, and Oyo
is no exception. Jonathan’s popularity has greatly dipped among the
Even last time when Jonathan won in other
Yoruba states, he lost in this one. The governor Rauf Aregbesola is so
popular in the state and he’s definitely campaigning for his party, the
APC. Jonathan virtually has no chance of winning here.
is obviously leaning towards Buhari and the APC like the other Yoruba
states. Jonathan hasn’t got a strong enough following here to challenge
Protesters will predictably pour out on the
streets of Lagos if Jonathan happens to win there. He’s the least
popular candidate on the ballot among the Lagos people. He beat Buhari
in this city the last time, but now it’s a lot harder for him to repeat
that feat in this election.