It’s now three weeks to the presidential election on March 28, and things are shaping up already for the big day. The parties are rounding off their campaigns. INEC is doing mock elections to test run its equipment and operations. The world is watching what’s going to happen in the coming weeks. Who will win this election?
commentator on political issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list
of states where it is likely APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will
lose the polls.
Muhammadu Buhari has undoubtedly had a
phenomenal run in this election. He’s transformed from being a bigoted
strongman to being charismatic leader that people nationwide now look up
to for change. He might just well win this election.
there are some states where Buhari might lose this election based on
recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states.
Here are 17 states where this might happen.
is a predominantly Christian state in the middle belt. In the last
election Jonathan best Buhari here and clinched over 66% of the votes.
Buhari might lose here again this year. The state is run by a PDP
Jonathan soundly beat Buhari in Kogi in
2011. He got 70% of the votes. Kogi has a significant Christian
population and is governed by the PDP.
Jonathan defeated Buhari in Plateau by a wide margin last time. Plateau is mainly Christian and has a PDP government.
is the seat of government where President Jonathan is in charge. He
grabbed over two-thirds of the votes in 2011 and won comfortably. The
federal government-run things in Abuja and this could be a disadvantage
Buhari only mustered half the number of
votes Jonathan won in this state last time. It’s a mainly Christian
state and the government is PDP.
Buhari bowed to
Jonathan here in 2011. It’s one of the two states in the northeast where
Buhari lost to Jonathan. It’s a predominantly Christian state.
won 99% of the votes here while Buhari won less than 1%. The east is
Buhari’s worst nightmare. Abia is mainly Christian.
Again Buhari fared woefully here last time. He didn’t even get 1,000 votes here. The PDP is in charge in Ebonyi.
is run by the APGA but the people are leaning towards Jonathan. Anambra
is the heart of Igbo territory. A Buhari victory is unlikely here.
Anambra, Enugu is the heart of Igbo territory. Jonathan neatly beat
Buhari here last time. The general didn’t get 0.5% of the votes here.
The people are likely going to vote Jonathan. It’s a PDP state.
Buhari win in Bayelsa will be a complete miracle. This is Jonathan’s
home. He swept virtually all the votes here last time. It may not happen
like that again this month, but surely his people will get behind him.
state is strongly PDP and more likely to vote Jonathan than Buhari.
Jonathan won over 98% of the votes here in 2011. Buhari hardly commands
any following in this state.
popularity has dwindled in the past few years and so even though the
state government is run by Buhari’s party, it’s not certain that the
general would take the prize here. But it’s possible.
14. Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom voted resoundingly for Jonathan in 2011 and it’s a PDP state. Buhari will have a hard time taking this state.
15. Cross Rivers
Rivers has a PDP government. Buhari lost to Jonathan here in the
previous election. Jonathan is more likely to win here despite
Ekiti is one of two states in the west
controlled by the PDP. The governor is chiefly behind Jonathan and he’s
got a huge grassroots following. He’s a man of the people. He’s capable
of swaying his people.
17. Ondo is the other state in the west
controlled by the PDP. Like Governor Fayose of Ekiti, Ondo governor
Mimiko also has a strong grassroots following and is backing Jonathan.
But maybe Buhari can surmount the challenge and snatch a win in this